浙江儿童医院打瘦脸针多少钱度排名好专家

来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 浙江儿童医院打瘦脸针多少钱飞管家知道健康
SACRAMENTO Calif. --- After Donald Trump was elected as the 45th president of the ed States many Californians voiced their disapproval by calling for California to secede from the U.S.萨克拉门托卡利夫报道,在川普当选第45任美国总统后,许多加州人民发声表示不同意,他们要求加州从美国脱离出去。But can California actually secede from the ed States?但是图样的加州人民真的以为可以从联邦政府脱离吗?In 1961 McDonald County Mo. briefly became McDonald Territory after attempting to secede from the state of Missouri. More recently a movement in Texas called for a #Texit from the ed States and several northern California cities have proposed a State of Jefferson separated from California.1961年麦克唐纳县曾经短暂的从密苏里州独立,拥有自己的领土。 最近的脱离联邦运动是德克萨斯州脱离美利坚运动,以及几个加州北部城市提出来的脱离加州管理组建一个新的杰佛逊州运动。In California a political group dubbed the Yes California Independence Campaign is using the Trump win as an opportunity to breathe life into their crusade to make California an independent country. The group hopes to put a referendum on a 2018 ballot that will allow Californians to make the choice to #Calexit once and for all.在加州一个“Yes California”独立运动政治组织将川普的获胜视为给他们为推动加州成为独立国家的“脱离”运动带来生气的绝好机会。这个组织希望能在2018年推动一项“#Calexit”全民公投让加州人对是否脱离美联邦做一次彻底的选择。But states hopes of succession are nothing more than California Dreamin#39; according to David A. Carrillo Executive Director of the California Constitution Center at the University of California Berkeley Law.但是加利佛尼亚伯克利分校法学院-加州宪法中心执行董事David A. Carrillo认为承继国家的希望(即加州独立)只不过是一个“加州梦”而已;There is no legal basis for a state to secede from the unx.; Carrillo said. ;The U.S. Constitution (A4s3) has a procedure for adding new states or subdividing existing states--both require Congress to consent. But there is no procedure at all in the U.S. constitution for a state to secede.;Carrillo说:“一个州从美国联邦脱离并没有法律基础,美国宪法只规定了新的州如何加入联邦以及如何将已有的州分割的程序——这两个程序都需要经过国会通过。但是在整个美国宪法中都没有对一个州如何退出联邦的程序进行阐明。” In Texas v. White in 1869 the Supreme Court of the ed States ruled that states cannot secede.在1869年德克萨斯州诉怀特案时,美国联邦最高法院规定州政府不能脱离联邦。California#39;s own Constitution (A3s1) states that ;The State of California is an inseparable part of the ed States of America and the ed States Constitution is the supreme law of the land.;加利福尼亚州的州宪法(第三条第一款)指出:“加利福尼亚州是美利坚合众国不可分割的一部分,美利坚合众国宪法是国家的根本大法。”Carrillo also discussed the probability and previous outcomes from other states.Carrillo也谈到了加州独立的可能性和其他州之前谋求独立的结果。;It#39;s extremely unlikely California could secede legally or otherwise.; he said. ;A group of states tried that once. It ended very badly for them.;他表示:“无论是否通过合法手段,加州独立都是根本不可能的。有几个州曾经尝试过独立,但都以失败告终。” /201611/477852No sense in burying the lede. This week, after more than eight years of lively habitation in one of journalism’s more obscure corners, I’m making a final egress, passing on. Starting after Friday’s deadline (ha!) I am an ex-obit writer.没必要绕弯子。在新闻业一个不那么为人注意的领域愉快地驻守八年多后,我在本周最终谢幕,要往前走了。这周五是截稿期限(哈!),然后我就成为一名前讣告作者了。Here’s my legacy. A thousand salutes to the departed, something like that. Age range 11 to 104. Cops and criminals, actors and athletes, scientists and judges, politicians and other poobahs. Famous, infamous or as obscure as the rest of us except for one instance of memorable distinction. A man with a mountain named for him, another who hijacked a plane. A woman who changed infant care for the better, another who shot a ballplayer. High achievers who died after long and fruitful lives (Yogi Berra, Ruby Dee, E. L. Doctorow) or whose unanticipated demise (Grete Waitz, Philip Seymour Hoffman, David Carr) demanded furiously quick reporting and writing — and attention on the front page.我遗留下来的是:向一千位逝者的致意,大概可以这么说吧。他们的年龄下至11岁,上至104岁。有警察,也有罪犯;有演员和运动员,也有科学家和法官,还有政坛人物和其他大佬。有知名的、臭名昭著的,也有除了一个值得纪念的特别之处以外,与我们其他人一样籍籍无名的人。其中,有名男子有一座山峰以他命名,也有一名男子劫持了一架飞机。有一名女性改善了婴儿护理的状况,另一名则射杀了一位棒球手。有的人取得了很高的成就,在度过漫长而有成果的人生之后去世(约吉#8226;贝拉[Yogi Berra]、鲁比#8226;迪伊[Ruby Dee]、E#8226;L#8226;多克托罗[E. L. Doctorow]),有的人则是生命戛然而止,需要我们极其快速地组织报道和写作,而且会在头版刊登(格蕾特#8226;魏茨[Grete Waitz]、菲利普#8226;西#8226;霍夫曼[Philip Seymour Hoffman]、戴维#8226;卡尔[David Carr])。Name a profession (Scream queen? Used car dealer? Astronaut? Guru?) or an achievement (Solved an equation? Caught a killer? Integrated a sitcom?) or an ignominious label (Pederast? Con artist? Embezzler?). For whatever reason — AIDS or Alzheimer’s, cancer or a car crash, heart failure or kidney disease, sepsis or suicide — they all went on my watch.随便列举一项职业(尖叫女王?二手车经销商?宇航员?古鲁?),或一项成就(解开一个方程?抓到一名杀人犯?演活了一部情景喜剧?),或一个不光的标签(恋童癖男子?大骗子?贪污者?),都有对应的人。不管是出于什么原因——艾滋病或阿尔茨海默症,癌症或车祸,心力衰竭或肾病,败血症或自杀——他们都进了我的写作名单。We’re accustomed, my colleagues and I, to saying that an obituary is not about a death, but a life. This is true, but really, we’re reporters and you can’t avoid the news, which is, of course, the same news every time. That’s one thing that distinguishes writing obituaries from anything else in journalism.我和同事们习惯说,讣告并非关于死亡,而是关乎生命。这是真的,但我们又的确是记者,避不开新闻性。当然,这些新闻每次也都差不多。这正是讣告写作与其他任何新闻写作不同的地方。Another is that we start at the end and look backward. There’s some reward in this, in the excavating we do that often unearths interesting, long-forgotten facts.另一个不同之处在于,我们从结尾开始,向前追溯。这会让你有所回报,在挖掘过去的过程中,我们往往会发现一些早被遗忘的有趣事实。But it’s melancholy, too. We had a movie made about us recently, a documentary called “Obit,” and in it my former deskmate Doug Martin, who effected his own exit from the obit business a couple of years ago, made a comment of encapsulating rue. He often admired the people he wrote about, he said, but he never got to meet them.不过,它也会令人感伤。我们最近拍了一部有关自己的纪录片,名为《讣告》(Obit)。两年前退出这一写作领域的前同事道格#8226;马丁(Doug Martin)在其中做了饱含遗憾之情的总结。他往往很欣赏自己的写作对象,但却从来没有机会见到他们。I’ve had a long career at this newspaper, three decades, exercising, for better or worse, a good deal of imagination. But in the last eight-plus years I haven’t had to come up with a story idea. I’ve spent hundreds of afternoons burrowing deep into cyberspace and perusing yellowed news clippings from The Times’s historical archive, a.k.a. the morgue. And then the phone interviews — necessary, sometimes grueling, often poignant with laughter or tears, half consulting with and half consoling friends and relatives of the dead who hope I’m giving credence and gravity to their anguish and not sucking the marrow out of it.我在这份报纸度过了漫长的职业生涯,前后30年,不管好坏,挖掘出了不少创造力。但是在过去的八年多时间里,我不需要再构思故事。在数百个下午,我在网络世界里深挖,在时报的档案库——也就是“太平间”——里翻看发黄的新闻剪报。然后进行电话采访——这是必要的,有时非常折磨人,往往伴随酸楚的笑声或眼泪,一半工作是询问死者的亲友,另一半则是安慰他们。他们希望我的报道赋予他们的痛苦真实性和份量,不要丧失其中的精华。I hardly ever left the office; that bugs me. A few trips to the library or a bookstore, once or twice to a museum, the apartment of the widow of a former Marlboro Man who had some old ads I wanted to see. Not the most adventurous reporting in the world.我几乎没有踏出过办公室;这让我感到困扰。去过几次图书馆或书店,偶尔去一两趟物馆、一名曾经的万宝路香烟广告男演员遗孀的公寓,那里有我想看的旧广告资料。怎么也算不上世界上最惊险刺激的那种报道工作。All that said, I don’t think it’s self-aggrandizing to say that obituary writing is important work. An obituary is, after all, the first last word on a life, a public assessment of a human being’s time on earth, a judgment on what deserves to be remembered. In addition, though we write for ers of all stripes, of course, and not especially for those in mourning, I suspect all of us who do this keep the loved ones in mind, and if we don’t seek their approval exactly — unsavory details are often unavoidable — we strive to write so that they at least recognize the person they’ve lost. Journalism isn’t supposed to be a personal service, but obituary writing, without compromising any professional integrity, can be. Maybe should be. In any case, getting it right is not easy. And getting it wrong can cause real distress to the aly distressed.话虽如此,但我认为说写讣告是一份重要的工作并不是在自夸。毕竟,讣告是对一个生命做出的最早的结语、是对一个人一生的公开评价,是对值得纪念的东西的判断。此外,虽然我们的文章当然是面向形形色色的读者,而不是特地为那些哀悼逝者的人而写,但我怀疑,我们做这一行的所有人心里都想着逝者的亲友。如果说我们并不寻求得到他们的赞同——令人不快的细节常常无法避免——我们也在力争做到他们至少能认出自己失去的那个人。新闻报道不应为私人务,但在不破坏任何职业操守的情况下,讣告写作可以这样。也许也应该这样。无论如何,恰当处理这件事并非易事。而不当处理则可能会给本就无比痛苦的人造成实际的痛苦。Obituary writers tend to be older people, at least at The Times, where the average age of the reporters and editors on the obits desk is higher than that of any other department. This is as it should be. Partly, I guess, they don’t want us running around too much, approaching decrepitude as we are. But mostly it’s because we’ve shared a lot of time on earth with our subjects and have lived through much of the history they helped make. Not incidentally, we’ve all had the experience of grief and know what it feels like to live in the immediate aftermath of personal tragedy.讣告作者往往是上了年纪的人,至少在时报是这样。时报讣告部门的记者和编辑的平均年龄比其他任何部门都高。理应如此。我猜在一定程度上因为他们不想让接近老弱之态的我们四处奔波太多。但主要是因为,在大量时间里,我们和写作对象生活在同一个时代,我们经历了他们参与创造的大量历史。并且必须要说的是,我们所有人都有过悲伤的经历,都知道个人悲剧刚发生后的感受。The significant irony to retiring from the obits department is this: I may be going but you’re not quite rid of me. My byline is likely to continue to appear for months, even years, because of the 40 or 50 obituaries I’ve written of people who are still living — the future dead, as we say, in mordant obit-speak. Perhaps I’ll even have a posthumous byline or two — not something I aspire to, by the way.从讣告部门退休这件事最具讽刺意味的是:我可能是走了,但你们却不会完全摆脱我。我的署名大概会继续出现几个月,乃至几年,因为我写的四五十篇讣告的主角尚在人世——用不客气的讣告圈行话来说叫未来的死者。也许,我的署名甚至会在自己死后出现一两次。顺便说一句,这可不是我渴望发生的事。Advances are what we call these obituaries written in, well, advance. It’s a practical matter; you can’t write the comprehensive life story of a president or a pope or a movie star in an hour or even a day. But think about the presumption of such an enterprise. We know they’re going. We don’t know how. We don’t know when.我们把这些提前写好的讣告叫预稿。这是一种很实用的做法;你无法在一个小时甚至一天内写出一篇文章,全面介绍一位总统、教皇或电影明星的生平。但想象一下,这样的项目到底是什么情况。我们知道他们即将离去,但不知道会以什么方式,在什么时候。Which is, of course, the main reason I’m getting out while the getting is good.当然,这正好就是我在适当的时候离开的主要原因。 /201608/461299

For most of the Age of Oil, groups of producers have tried to control its price. From the 1920s, that strategy was co-ordinated by the Railroad Commission of Texas, supported by other US states and federal authorities. Then from the 1970s it was Opec, the producing countries’ cartel.石油时代的大部分时期,石油生产国组织都在试图控制油价。上世纪20年代,德克萨斯州铁路委员会(Texas Railroad Commission)开始这样做,并获得美国其他州和联邦当局的持。到上世纪70年代,石油生产国成立了石油输出国组织(Opec,简称欧佩克)来控制油价。The plunge in the price of crude since the summer of 2014 has made it clear that the market has escaped anyone’s ability to control it.自2014年夏季以来,原油价格暴跌,表明原油市场已没有人能控制得住了。A combination of technological progress, in the shape of the spectacular success of US shale oil production over the past five years, worries about the slowdown in China and other emerging economies, and a shift in strategy by Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has caused a global glut of oil that sent prices tumbling by more than 50 per cent.以过去5年美国页岩油生产的巨大成功为代表的技术进步、对中国和其他新兴经济体经济放缓的担忧,以及全球最大石油生产国沙特改变策略,这些因素共同导致全球石油供应过剩,从而使得油价暴跌逾50%。For now, at least, prices are being driven more by market forces than by political decisions and it is an unnerving experience for everyone concerned, from the boardrooms of Houston to the palaces of Riyadh. It is not, however, wholly unprecedented.至少就目前而言,影响油价的是市场力量、而非政治决定。从休斯顿那些大型油企的董事会、到利雅得的宫殿里,油价暴跌让所有相关方焦躁不安。然而,这并非完全没有先例。In the words that are apocryphally attributed to Mark Twain, “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. So, while there are no exact precedents for today’s markets, the past can provide some clues to the future.据说马克吐温(Mark Twain)曾说过:“历史不会重演,但总会惊人地相似。”因此,尽管当今市场状况没有一模一样的先例,但过去也能给未来提供一些线索。The most recent oil price collapse came just seven years ago. The downfall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the subsequent financial crisis toppled crude prices from a higher peak than in 2014 to its lowest trough. That episode turned out to be shortlived. Having dropped below per barrel in December 2008, internationally traded benchmark Brent crude was back above by June 2009.最近一次油价暴跌就发生在7年前。2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭以及随后的金融危机,使得油价从比2014年价格还要高的峰值跌至最低点。事实明这种下跌是短暂的。在2008年12月跌至每桶37美元下方之后,国际基准油价布伦特(Brent)原油价格到2009年6月重返70美元上方。On the demand side, 2015 looks quite like 2009. Six years ago, the swift resumption of strong growth in China, after a brief wobble in late 2008 and early 2009, provided important support to prices. This year, similarly, growth in China’s oil demand has been strong, though forecasters expect it to slow. It is the supply side that is different.从需求方面来说,2015年看起来和2009年非常相像。6年前,在2008年末和2009年初短暂下跌之后,中国很快恢复强劲增长,这为油价提供了重要撑。今年同样如此,中国对石油的需求一直强劲,尽管预测机构预计其需求将会放缓。供应方面则有所不同。In 2008, there was decisive action by Opec, which cut its agreed output by 4.2m barrels per day in three steps from September to December, culminating in the largest single reduction in its history that helped stabilise prices.2008年,欧佩克采取果断举措,从9月到12月分三步实现日减产420万桶,直至创出历史上最大幅度的单日减产,这帮助稳定了油价。The cartel’s ability to control oil markets is often exaggerated, but it is clear that its intervention in 2008 had a very significant impact. When its ministers met in Vienna on November 27 last year, as the latest price slide was in full swing, they suggested their influence had reached its limits.欧佩克控制石油市场的能力往往被夸大,但它在2008年的干预显然作用显著。在去年11月27日于维也纳举行的欧佩克部长级会议上——当时正是本轮油价下跌最厉害之时——部长们表示欧佩克的影响力已经达到极限。Their decision to leave their official production level unchanged set the seal on a policy that had aly been signalled for months by Saudi Arabia, the group’s most influential member. As Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, explained later in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey, a cut in Opec production, meaning principally Saudi production, would have merely allowed more “marginal barrels” from US shale and other higher-cost sources to fill the gap.会议让官方产量水平保持不变的决定,确认了该集团最具影响力的成员国沙特数月以来一直在暗示的政策。正如沙特石油部长阿里纳伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)后来在接受《中东经济调察》(Middle East Economic Survey)采访时解释的那样,欧佩克减产(主要是沙特减产)只会让来自美国页岩和其他高成本资源的更多“边际供应”来填补缺口。The clearest precedent for Mr Naimi’s strategy of turning on the taps is the policy adopted by Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, his famous predecessor, who boosted production in 1985-86 after cutting back over the previous half-decade to support prices. Crude plunged in 1986 and the world entered a period of low prices that stretched into the 2000s.纳伊米“打开输油龙头”策略的最明显先例,是著名的沙特前石油部长谢赫縠哈迈德丠基騠汎尼(Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani)曾经推行的政策,后者在为撑价格减产5年之后,于1985年至1986年间下令提高石油产量。1986年原油价格暴跌,全球进入了一直持续到2000年代的低油价时代。Another parallel with today was the preceding surge in non-Opec production. The equivalent of this decade’s shale boom was the opening of two important new oil provinces: the North Sea and Alaska.另一个与当前有些相像的例子是当年非欧佩克石油生产国产量的飙升。当时,北海和阿拉斯加这两个新的重要石油产地开始产油,其效果无异于本十年这场页岩繁荣。The development of those areas, which were relatively high-cost compared to oilfields in the Middle East, was made possible by Opec moves that forced up the price of oil in the 1970s, just as shale was made viable by the high prices of the first half of the 2010s.与中东油田相比,那两个地区的油田开采成本相对较高。欧佩克上世纪70年代推升油价的举措,使得开发那里的石油成为可能,这和2010年代头5年的高油价让页岩油开发成为可能一样。Although low prices hit investment, prompting cost-cutting from western oil companies including the mega-merger wave at the end of the 1990s, production took a long time to respond. The UK, Norway and Alaska continued to produce in large volumes through the turn of the century.尽管低油价打击投资,促使西方石油公司削减成本,包括出现上世纪90年代末的并购潮,但生产花了很长时间才做出回应。英国、挪威和阿拉斯加在本世纪之交继续大规模开采石油。Eventually, though, as those regions went into decline, and demand from China and other emerging economies began to grow strongly, the stage was set for the steep rise in prices of the 2000s. The question today is how quickly a similar adjustment of supply will materialise. At the beginning of this year, many expected that the US shale industry would head quickly into a downturn.然而,随着那些地区产量步入下降通道,中国和其他新兴经济体的需求也开始强劲增长,最终为2000年代油价大幅上涨创造了条件。今天的问题是,供应方面会多快实现类似调整。在今年年初,许多人预计,美国页岩行业将会很快陷入低迷。So far, it has not turned out like that. Production companies have been able to squeeze out further efficiency gains and cut the prices they pay suppliers. They have also been “high-grading” their operations: focusing on the most productive areas. US production has proved more resilient than some had expected.该行业迄今并未陷入低迷。生产公司能够通过提高效率进一步挤出一些收益并压低付给供应商的价格。他们也一直在“掐尖儿”生产:主要开发产油量最高的地区。事实明,美国生产的弹性超过一些人的预期。However Trisha Curtis, of the Washington-based Energy Policy Research Foundation, says oil at under is causing “quite serious” problems for the industry. Blithe assertions that everything seems fine ignore the fact that there is always a lag before production reflects the number of rigs drilling for oil, which has dropped 63 per cent in the past year. “It’s going to take a while,” says Ms Curtis. The shale industry is not dying, she adds, but it may be going “into hibernation”.然而,华盛顿能源政策研究基金会(Energy Policy Research Foundation)的特丽莎柯蒂斯(Trisha Curtis)表示,油价跌至50美元下方正对页岩行业造成“非常严重的”问题。乐观地断言“似乎一切都好”忽视了如下事实,即石油钻井平台的数量总是要过一段时间才会反映到产量上——石油钻井平台在过去一年里减少了63%。柯蒂斯表示:“会滞后一段时间。”她补充称,页岩行业没有在走向死亡,但可能会进入“冬眠”。In other oil-producing regions, where project developments are typically multiyear and multibillion-dollar commitments, production will be slower to react to the fall in price of crude.在项目开发通常需要数年时间和数十亿美元投资承诺的其他石油生产地区,生产对油价下跌的反应将会更慢。Philip Verleger, an energy economist, suggests Venezuela, a leading oil producer now in the grip of a severe financial crisis, could crack first, with mounting chaos in the country putting its entire 2.4m b/d of production at risk.能源经济学家菲利普弗莱杰(Philip Verleger)表示,处于严重金融危机中的主要石油生产国委内瑞拉可能首先崩溃,该国日益升级的骚乱让其240万桶的日产量可能整个不保。For those reasons, while the oil market will for a while be weighed down by near-term pressures, including the prospect of additional Iranian supply, the longer-term price trend still seems likely to be upwards, with the potential for spikes if crises erupt in Venezuela or elsewhere. Edward Morse, analyst at Citigroup, suggests a range of - per barrel would bring supply and demand back into balance.出于上述原因,尽管石油市场暂时将会因短期压力(包括伊朗可能额外供应一些石油)而承压,但更长期的价格趋势似乎仍可能是上行的,如果委内瑞拉或其他地方爆发危机,油价还有可能大幅飙升。花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师爱德华莫尔斯(Edward Morse)表示, 60美元/桶至80美元/桶之间的油价将会让供需重新实现平衡。The idea that supplies of fossil fuels will grow ever tighter as demand increases, pushing prices inexorably higher, has been put on ice, perhaps forever. The lesson of the past decade is that so long as the right technology, capital and legal frameworks are in place, oil and gas will flow. If the world is to shift away from fossil fuels, therefore, governments will need to take deliberate policy actions to make that happen.化石燃料供应将会随着需求增长而日益紧张、从而推动价格大大提高的观点已经降温,或许是永远降温了。过去十年的教训在于,只要合适的技术、资本和法律框架到位,石油和天然气将会源源不断地被生产出来。因此,如果世界想要不再使用化石燃料,各国政府将需要采取刻意朝这个方向引导的政策措施。 /201511/409971Ma Xiaoqiu, a single mother in northeast China#39;s Shenyang city is asking for help from the public with her twin sons, both of whom are seriously obese, and both of whom have autism.来自中国东北沈阳的一位名叫马晓秋的单亲妈妈,于日前请求公众的帮助--她的双胞胎儿子重度肥胖,且两人都患有自闭症。While the elder son Zhang Hangjun weighed 550 pounds with a 300cm waist, his younger brother Zhang Yuanjun weighed 275 pounds.她的大儿子张航郡重达550磅, 腰围有300厘米粗,小儿子张原郡则重达275磅。Both aged 22, yet due to their suffering of cerebral palsy and autism, they both had severe learning disability. And the elder brother#39;s IQ was equivalent to a 1-year-old child. He has just learned to say the word ;mom; in recent years.两人今年22岁了,但是脑瘫和自闭症导致了严重的学习障碍。老大的智商相当于1岁婴儿的水平,近些年来才学会了叫“妈妈”。Their mother, Ma, said the premature birth and obstructed labour in 1994 was the cause of their illnesses.他们的妈妈马晓秋表示,1994的他们出生时是早产、难产,所以才患上了这些病。Yuanjun, the younger son, had the same issues as his brother but milder. While his brother was completely unable to take care of himself on the daily basis, Yuanjun was able to accomplish some preliminary chores.小儿子张原郡和哥哥情况差不多,但稍微好一点。他的哥哥日常生活完全不能自理,原郡还能做一些基本的家务活。He was good at playing piano and singing, and he even held his personal concert with the help of the president of Beijing Wanbo Brain Health Hospital.他钢琴弹得好,歌唱得也好,在北京万脑康中医院院长的帮助下,还开了个人演唱会。Ma said most of her income was spent on food. The two boys ate a lot more than ordinary people. Now, the single mother is asking the society for help with her beloved sons.马晓秋表示,她的收入大半都花在了食物上。两个儿子比常人吃的多的多。现在,这位单亲妈妈正在寻求社会来帮助她的儿子们。 /201701/487292

At the Democratic convention last week, I experienced an uncomfortable feeling of déjà vu. Emblazoned across the arena was the rallying cry of the Hillary Clinton campaign — “Stronger Together”. It was a depressing reminder of “Stronger In,” — the slogan of the losing Remain campaign in Britain’s referendum on EU membership.在上周的民主党全国代表大会上,我体会到一种令人不安的似曾相识感。全场充斥着希拉里#8226;克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的竞选口号——“团结就是力量”(Stronger Together)。这让人沮丧地想起了“留欧就是力量”(Stronger In)——这是在英国退欧公投中输掉的留欧阵营的口号。This similarity is more than an unfortunate coincidence. I would point to three parallels between Brexit and the Trump phenomenon that should worry the Clinton campaign. The first is the potency of immigration as an issue. The second is the way in which the Trump and Brexit campaigns have become vehicles for protest votes about economic insecurity. The third is the chasm between elite opinion and that of the white working class.这种相似性不仅仅是令人遗憾的巧合。我会指出英国退欧和特朗普现象之间存在的3点相似之处,希拉里阵营应该对这些相似之处感到担忧。第一点是移民问题的力量。第二点是特朗普和退欧阵营如何已经成了选民对经济不安全感投下抗议票的工具。第三点是精英阶层和白人劳动阶层之间的意见分歧。Both the Trump and Brexit campaigns have put the promise to control immigration at the centre of their operations. In the UK, the Brexiters’ demand to “take back control” was understood to mean, above all, a promise to stop the flow of immigrants from Europe. Mr Trump’s most famous campaign pledge is to “build the wall” and stop illegal immigration from Mexico to the US.特朗普的竞选活动和退欧拉票活动均把控制移民的承诺置于运作的中心位置。在英国,退欧派“夺回控制权”的要求可以说首先意味着阻止移民从欧洲涌入的承诺。特朗普最著名的竞选承诺是“竖起高墙”、阻止墨西哥非法移民进入美国。In both the UK and the US, immigration has become a powerful symbol of the elite’s alleged willingness to undermine the living standards of the working class by allowing in cheap labour from overseas. The Brexit and Trump campaigns have also fused anxiety about immigration with fear of terrorism. Mr Trump has notoriously called for a ban on all Muslims entering the US. The Brexit campaign featured posters about the refugee crisis in the EU, playing to concerns about an inflow of Muslim immigrants from the Middle East.无论在英国还是美国,移民问题已经成为了一个有力的符号,象征着精英阶层听任廉价海外劳动力进入本国、损害劳动阶层生活水平的所谓意愿。英国退欧拉票活动和特朗普的竞选活动还把对恐怖主义的恐惧与对移民问题的担忧搅在一起。众所周知,特朗普呼吁禁止所有穆斯林进入美国。退欧阵营四处张贴有关欧盟难民危机的海报,利用民众对中东穆斯林移民涌入英国的担忧。In the British case, the Remain campaign never really found a way to dealing with public anxiety about immigration, and the Democrats may be falling into the same trap. Mrs Clinton’s declaration last week that “We will not build a wall” drew huge cheers from the floor of the convention. But the British experience suggests that declarations of this sort might simply be interpreted as a refusal to engage with public concerns about migration. Mr Trump is certainly making that case, tweeting recently that “Hillary’s vision is a borderless world where working people have no power, no jobs, no safety”.英国的留欧阵营始终未能真正找到平息民众对移民顾虑的方法,民主党可能也会在这个问题上栽跟头。希拉里上周宣布“我们不会竖起高墙”,引发了党代会现场的高声欢呼。但是英国的经验表明,此类宣言可能只会被解读为拒绝回应公众对移民的担忧。特朗普当然会主张这种解读,他最近在Twitter上称“希拉里的愿景是一个没有边界线的世界,在那个世界里劳动阶层没有权力、没有工作,也没有保障”。Mr Trump’s claim to champion the poor and those with precarious jobs is also politically potent. Something similar certainly worked in Britain, where the Remain campaign failed to anticipate that the referendum would turn into a vehicle for a protest vote about jobs and living standards. In the UK, most people have not seen any rise in real wages since the financial crisis of 2008, and many regions of the country have suffered economic stagnation for decades.特朗普声称持穷人和那些工作无保障的劳动者的做法,在政治上也是有效的。类似的做法在英国肯定起到了作用,那里的留欧阵营未能预料到退欧公投会变成民众针对就业和生活水平投下抗议票的工具。在英国,自2008年金融危机以来,多数人的实际薪资水平都没有任何上涨,英国很多地区都经历了数十年的经济停滞。After the Brexit vote, the journalist John Lanchester observed: “To be born in many places in Britain is to suffer an irreversible life-long defeat — a truncation of opportunity, of education, of access to power, of life expectancy.” The same could be said of many left-behindareas in the US, where average real wages have actually fallendropped in recent decades. The life expectancy of white Americans without a college degree has also fallen since 2000, driven, according to The New York Times, by an “epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse”. A recently released Harris poll released last year showed that 85 per cent of Americans believe the people running the country do not care about them and 81 per cent believe the rich are getting richer, while the poor are getting poorer.在英国退欧公投后,记者约翰#8226;兰彻斯特(John Lanchester)道:“生在英国很多地方,就意味着要遭遇一生的注定挫败——机遇、教育、权力的享有、预期寿命都要打个折扣。”同样的话也适用于美国很多落后地区——最近数十年这些地区的平均实际工资实际上不升反降。自2000年以来,没有大学文凭的美国白人群体的预期寿命也出现下滑,据《纽约时报》(The New York Times)报道,这是由于“药物滥用造成的自杀和病痛(在这一群体中)普遍存在”。去年公布的一份哈里斯(Harris)民调显示:85%的美国人认为这个国家的掌权者不在乎他们;81%的人认为富人越来越富,而穷人则越来越穷。The problem for Mrs Clinton — and it is a big one — is that she embodies the political establishment that a large majority of Americans now appears to despise. The Democrats make the obvious point that Mr Trump’s own life is a monument to his indifference to ordinary people. But the more the US elite and “mainstream media” unites against Mr Trump, the more they underline his status as an anti-system candidate.希拉里的问题——也是一个大问题——在于她代表了如今大多数美国人看上去鄙视的政治建制。民主党指出了显而易见的一点,即特朗普自己的人生就是他对平民百姓漠不关心的明。但是美国精英阶层和“主流媒体”越是团结起来反对特朗普,他们就越是凸显出特朗普反体制候选人的身份。Some argue that Mr Trump’s base in the white working class is too small to carry him to victory in November. But that problem may not apply if the Republicans can significantly increase voter turnout. Once again, the British experience is relevant. The victory for Brexit was propelled over the line by secured by many working-class voters who had not bothered to turn out in the recent general elections.一些人认为,特朗普在白人劳动阶层的选民基础太小,不足以撑他在11月的总统大选中获胜。但是,如果共和党可以大幅提高选民投票率,这个问题可能就不成立了。在这里,英国的经历也有参考意义。退欧运动之所以取得了胜利,靠的是很多在最近几次大选中懒得去投票的劳动阶级选民。In the UK, the political elite’s disconnect with working-class opinion led most commentators to dismiss the many opinion polls that suggested Britain was going to vote Leave. In the US last week, I encountered a similar incredulity among many American pundits whose own horror of Mr Trump makes it almost impossible for them to countenance the idea that he might actually be their next president.在英国,政治精英的意见与劳动阶级脱节,导致多数人士忽视了很多表明英国将投票退出欧盟的民调结果。上周,在美国,我发现美国很多权威人士存在类似的问题,他们个人对特朗普的极度厌恶,使得他们不可能接受特朗普可能真的会成为下一任总统的想法。The similarities between the Brexit and the Trump campaigns are striking, but there are also important differences. Most obviously that while the Brexit campaign used a dog whistle to appeal to racist sentiment, Mr Trump is using a foghorn.英国退欧公投和特朗普竞选活动之间的相似之处显而易见,但是两者之间也存在重要区别。最明显的是,退欧阵营用针对特定人群的隐蔽信息呼唤种族主义情绪,而特朗普用的则是高音喇叭。The most prominent Brexit campaigners, such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, strove to remain outwardly affable during the referendum campaign. By contrast, Mr Trump has specialised in the erratic and abusive.鲍里斯#8226;约翰逊(Boris Johnson)和迈克尔#8226;戈夫(Michael Gove)等最著名的退欧派成员在公投拉票期间努力维持表面上的亲善。相比之下,特朗普则特别擅长发表让人大跌眼镜的粗鲁言论。It is certainly possible that Mr Trump’s behaviour will turn off enough voters to deliver victory to Mrs Clinton in November. Having lived through Brexit, I would not count on it.特朗普的行为当然有可能吓跑足够多选民,让希拉里在11月的大选中胜出。但在经历了英国退欧公投后,我不会认为肯定会这样了。 /201608/458749

ROME — One ad pictured a woman holding an hourglass next to the words: Beauty has no age limit. Fertility does. 罗马——有一则广告描绘了一名女子举着一个沙漏,旁边写着:美没有年龄限制,生育有。Another portrayed a pair of baby shoes wrapped in a ribbon of the Italian flag. 另一幅广告上是一双婴儿鞋,上面用意大利国旗图案的丝带扎了个蝴蝶结。Yet another showed a man holding a half-burned cigarette: Don’t let your sperm go up in smoke, it .还有一幅显示一名男子夹着一根烧了一半的香烟,旁边写道:不要让你的精子随烟而逝。They were part of a government effort to promote Fertility Day on Sept. 22, a campaign intended to encourage Italians to have more babies. 这属于政府为宣传9月22日生育日而开展的活动的一部分。这项宣传活动旨在鼓励意大利人生育更多孩子。Instead, the ads set off a furor, were denounced as being offensive and within days were withdrawn.但这些广告反倒引发了公愤,被人谴责粗俗无礼,在几天内就撤下了。What they did succeed in doing, however, was to ignite a deeper and lasting debate about why it is that Italy has one of the lowest birthrates in the world, and what can be done about it.不过,它们的确成功地激发了更深层次的持久讨论,促使人们探讨为何意大利是世界上生育率最低的国家之一,以及可以就此做些什么。The problem is not a lack of desire to have children, critics of the campaign say, but rather the lack of meaningful support provided by the government and many employers in a country where the family remains the primary source of child care.批评这项宣传活动的人士表示,问题不在于缺少生孩子的欲望,而是因为在一个依然主要由家庭照料孩子的国家里,人们缺少来自政府和雇主的实质持。I should be a model for their campaign, and I still feel very offended, said Vittoria Iacovella, 37, a journalist and mother of two girls, ages 10 and 8. 我应该是这次宣传活动的一个样板,但我到现在还觉得自己受到了很大的冒犯,37岁的维多利亚#8226;亚科韦拉(Vittoria Iacovella)说。她是一名记者,养育了两个女儿,一个10岁,一个8岁。The government encourages us to have babies and then the main welfare system in Italy is still the grandparents.政府鼓励我们生孩子,但意大利主要的福利系统依然还是祖父母。Many working women, without an extended family to care for a child face a dilemma, as private child care is expensive. 很多没有大家族帮忙照顾孩子的职业女性要面临两难的选择,因为私人托儿所价格昂贵。Some also worry that their job security may be undermined by missing workdays because of child care issues. 一些人也担心,因照顾孩子的问题而请假,会让她们工作不保。Many companies do not offer flexible hours for working mothers.许多企业没有给职业母亲提供灵活的工作时间。Not surprisingly, Italy’s long slowdown in childbirth has coincided with its recent economic slump. 意大利生育率长久以来的减退,恰好赶上了近些年的经济滑坡,这一点并不奇怪。But Italian families have been shrinking for decades.但意大利家庭的萎缩已经持续几十年了。In 2015, 488,000 babies were born in Italy, the fewest since the country first unified in 1861. 在2015年,意大利共有48.8万名婴儿出生,是该国自1861年统一以来人数最低的一次。It has one of the lowest birthrates in Europe, with 1.37 children per woman, compared with a European average of 1.6, according to Eurostat figures.欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的数据显示,意大利是欧洲婴儿出生率最低的国家之一,平均每个女性生育1.37个子女,而整个欧洲的平均数字为1.6。By contrast, in France, the economy has been flat, too, but a family-oriented system provides a far more generous social safety net that includes day care and subsidies for families to have children. 相比之下,法国的经济也不景气,但以家庭为重的制度提供的社会保障务要丰富得多,包括日托和为家庭发放生儿育女的补贴。There, women have two children each on average.在法国,一名女性平均生育两个孩子。On paper, Italian women have equal rights, said Tiziana Bartolini, editor of Noi Donne, one of Italy’s most prominent feminist magazines. 从理论上讲,意大利女性拥有平等的权利,意大利知名女性主义杂志《我们女人》(Noi Donne)的主编蒂齐亚纳#8226;巴尔托利尼(Tiziana Bartolini)说。But reality tells us a different story. 但现实告诉我们的是另外一码事。Women are expected to care for children. 大家期待由女性来照顾孩子。If they live in regions where services are good, or in small towns, they keep their job. 如果是生活在务比较好的地区或是小城镇里,她们可以保住自己的工作。If they live in big, chaotic cities and have no family nearby, they are very prudent about becoming pregnant.而如果是生活在混乱的大都市,附近又没有亲戚倚靠,她们在怀这件事上就会很谨慎。Or they stop working, she added.要么就得放弃工作,她接着讲。 Yeah, sure, thought Maria Scioli, 41, a teacher who depends on her family to care for her 15-month-old boy, when she spotted the debate on her Facebook page.嗯,好吧,41岁的教师玛丽亚#8226;肖利(Maria Scioli)在自己的Facebook页面上看到那些争执时想。她依靠家人照顾15个月大的儿子。I’d love to have a second child, Scioli said, but my job situation worries me. 我倒想再要一个孩子,肖利说,但我的工作状况让我感到担忧。And I even feel lucky. I think about all those women my age or younger that couldn’t have babies and had to watch that offensive ad.想到在我这个年龄或更年轻的女性无法要孩子,还得看这种令人不快的广告,我甚至感觉有些幸运。Even Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose own health minister started the campaign, distanced himself from the ads in a radio interview, noting ironically that none of his friends had their kids after seeing an advert.在接受电台采访时,就连意大利总理马泰奥#8226;伦齐(Matteo Renzi)也与由他手下的卫生部长发起的这项宣传活动保持距离。他不无讽刺意味地指出,自己的朋友没有一个是在看了广告之后要的孩子。Renzi said that to increase the birthrate, structural issues like day care and services needed to be addressed.伦齐表示,为了提高生育率,首先要解决日托和务等结构性问题。Under Renzi, Italy’s government has tried to help families with a so-called baby bonus of 80 to 160 euros (about to 0) for low- and middle-income households, and has approved labor laws giving more flexibility on parental leave. 在伦齐的领导下,意大利政府在努力为家庭提供帮助,为中低收入家庭提供了数额在80至160欧元之间的婴儿津贴,还通过了一些劳动法规,让人们获得更灵活的产假。But Italy allocates only 1 percent of its gross domestic product to social protection benefits — half the European average. 但意大利只拨出国内生产总值的1%用于社会保障福利,其额度仅为欧洲平均水平的一半。One child out of three here is at risk of relative poverty.在意大利,三个孩子中就有一个面临陷入相对贫困的风险。Italy has a terrible combination: low birthrate, low women’s employment and high risk of child poverty, said Alessandro Rosina, a professor of demography at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Milan. 意大利有一种糟糕的组合:生育率低、女性就业率低,以及儿童贫困风险高,在位于米兰的圣心天主教大学(Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)担任人口学教授的亚历山德罗#8226;罗西娜(Alessandro Rosina)说。On this path, Italy can only but have increasing costs for aging people, and increased public debt.沿着这条路往下走,意大利只会有更多的老龄化开,也会背上更多的国债。We defend our present, but can’t design the future, he said.我们可以维持现状,却不能设计未来,他说。Iacovella, the journalist, said her child’s kindergarten closed two hours before she got off work, and noted that working mothers are frustrated by the little help that Italy gives to women.记者亚科韦拉表示她孩子所在的幼儿园在她下班两小时前就会关门,还指出职业母亲为意大利政府给予女性的帮助非常之少而感到失望。She was so offended by the government ads that she vented her anger on Facebook soon after they started appearing, and her comments went viral online.政府的广告让她很生气,广告出现后不久她就在Facebook上发泄了自己的愤怒。她的在网上疯狂传播开来。Italy’s health minister, Beatrice Lorenzin, responding on Facebook, wrote that the Fertility Day campaign was not a call to reproduction but a day to discuss the fertility issues that 15 percent of Italians deal with. 意大利卫生部长贝亚特丽切#8226;洛伦津(Beatrice Lorenzin)在Facebook上做出了回应。她写道,设置生育日不是呼吁繁殖,而是让大家在这一天就15%的意大利人都要面对的生育问题进行讨论。She promptly canceled the campaign.她迅速取消了这项宣传活动。I am saddened that the launch of the advertising campaign misled many people, Lorenzin said. 发起广告推广活动让很多人产生了误会,我感到很难过,洛伦津说。I withdrew it to change it.撤下广告是为了进行整改。 /201609/466822

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